Medicaid Faces Uncertain Future as Republicans Target Program Under Trump Administration

Medicaid’s role in American healthcare is substantial. It supports nearly half of all children in the U.S., covers significant portions of mental health and nursing home care, and plays a vital part in managing chronic conditions.

By Stacy M. Brown

Medicaid, a critical lifeline for millions of Americans, faces an uncertain future as Republicans prepare to take control of Washington. The program, along with the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), provides health and long-term care coverage to 80 million low-income children, pregnant women, adults, seniors, and people with disabilities, is under scrutiny with proposed funding cuts and new eligibility requirements.

In Washington, D.C., Medicaid and CHIP collectively covered 260,218 residents as of June 2024, with total spending reaching $4.2 billion in fiscal year 2022. The federal government accounted for 78.2% of these costs. Since pandemic-era continuous enrollment provisions ended in March 2023, the District has disenrolled 67,619 individuals, even as total enrollment remains 7.7% higher than pre-pandemic levels. These numbers reflect growing pressures on state budgets and federal support.

Nationally, Medicaid’s expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) added 23 million people to its rolls, but that growth has made it a target for Republican lawmakers. With President-elect Donald Trump returning to office, proposals to cut Medicaid funding and impose work requirements have resurfaced. These measures, they argue, could help fund the extension of tax cuts that primarily benefit corporations and the wealthy.

GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington of Texas, chair of the House Budget Committee, has described work requirements as “responsible and reasonable,” while Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn has advocated for block grants to replace the current funding model. Critics caution that these changes could destabilize Medicaid, leaving states with significant funding gaps.

“If you want to avoid a debt spiral, there have got to be reforms made to federal health programs,” Brian Blase, a former Trump adviser who supports reducing federal contributions to Medicaid expansion, told the New York Times. Proposals under discussion include lowering the federal match rate for expansion enrollees from 90% to as low as 40%, a move that could force some states to drop the program entirely.

Medicaid’s role in American healthcare is substantial. It supports nearly half of all children in the U.S., covers significant portions of mental health and nursing home care, and plays a vital part in managing chronic conditions. In D.C., for instance, 95,577 Medicare beneficiaries and 71,021 enrollees in Medicare Part D also depend on Medicaid for supplemental support.

Advocates for the ACA’s expansion and consumer protections warn that cutting Medicaid would disproportionately harm vulnerable populations. “Without Medicaid coverage, you’ve got folks choosing between how to put food on the table or pay for their kids’ health care,” said Daniel Tsai, head of Medicaid at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

The appointment of Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead CMS signals the Trump administration’s intention to focus on cost reduction and fraud prevention. However, significant resistance is expected to sweeping cuts. In 2017, similar efforts met with public outcry, and polls show that over 70% of Americans support keeping Medicaid largely unchanged.

State officials are revisiting measures such as work requirements, which faced legal and logistical challenges during Trump’s first term. Arkansas saw thousands lose coverage due to work requirements before the court struck down the program. Georgia remains the only state that has implemented these requirements successfully.

The financial strain on states is already mounting, with federal Medicaid funding reduced by $60 billion for fiscal year 2024. Technical and administrative hurdles have left eligible Americans needing more coverage, exacerbating the problem.

Crystal Harp, a mother from Tennessee, described to the New York Times how Medicaid enabled her to manage her daughter’s rare epilepsy. “It’s unbearable to think about the medical debt we would be in if we did not have Medicaid,” she said.

As Republicans advance their policy agenda, Medicaid’s future is in peril. With millions depending on the program for basic healthcare needs, the debates in Congress will determine whether Medicaid continues as a cornerstone of American life or faces sweeping changes. “It could be the most consequential year in Medicaid’s life,” said Joan Alker of Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families.